The show will air Wednesday, October 1st at PM ET and PT. According to the Anchorage Daily News (itself an authoritative source for news on California politics), "Potential candidates include former child star Gary Coleman, prop comic Gallagher, porn star Mary Carey and Hollywood billboard queen Angelyne." It sounds like they are just guessing about the line up, so I'm not too disappointed not to see Don Novello's name on the list. I desperately want Father Guido Sarducci's take on this chaos.
I suppose the circus atmosphere is already too firmly entrenched to have this format add or detract from it much. It might even be informative, if the Game Show Network handles the debate in a Fair and Balanced way.
Predictably, there is widespread outrage over the move. But Neal Pollock suggests that bloggers everywhere should use the term, "Fair and Balanced" in their postings this coming Friday. But why not start now? Fox is garnering headlines over this issue every day. Is this fair? And balanced against the harm (chyah, right) being done to Al Franken, shouldn't we try to add weight to the outrage?
I'd truly like to know. And, I'd like to go to the fair. And balanced against that is the need to make money, so I should get back to work.
But I'm not running for office. How am I to choose between the candidates for Governor in the upcoming recall election? As it now stands, only one candidate potentially fits my biases and ideology: Arnold Schwarzenegger. But the Governator hasn't got my vote, yet. Arnold hasn't convinced me he's a serious candidate, for one thing. Oh, I'm convinced he's serious about running. By serious candidate I mean one who has a detailed program for running the state after the election. If he presents such a program, I'd want it to contain answers to the following questions:
I could probably think of more questions, but I suspect answers to a few of the above would help make up my mind. These are not "litmus tests." I would probably accept honest answers that didn't match my beliefs, unless they were too far off the mark. If I were convinced Arnold could be a good Governor, I might even vote "yes" on the recall.
The exit of Garamendi from the campaign leaves only one moderate candidate with name recognition in the field: Arnold Schwarzenegger. And Buzzflash, a left-wing opinion web site, accuses the Bush Administration of engineering the recall campaign from the start. While I think that conclusion is a little far-fetched, the linked page does present some interesting evidence that the Administration has a hand in it informally. At any rate, Bush's support may well mean that Schwartzenegger's campaign will have access to sharp political operatives on loan from the national Republican party. If I were one of those operatives, here is what I would try to do.
I'd try to enforce Republican party discipline to shut up the right wing with respect to Schwarzenegger candidacy. I'd refocus their ire on Cruz Bustamante, who is vulnerable to liberal baiting. Bustamante may then feel it necessary to fire back at the right (indeed it must be tempting anyway) and that will distract negative attention from Schwarzenegger. In other words, I'd try to convert a full-court press of the left and the right attacking the front runner into a free-for-all between the two political extremes aimed at each other leaving the center placid and clear for Arnold Schwarzenegger. He'll run against Gray Davis, a very soft target. The one internal problem with this is the fact that California Republicans have been famously resistant to control, or even compromise. The fact that there are still two prominent right-wing Republicans in the race is indicative of this.
If the forgoing outline of Republican strategy has any basis in reality, what should the Democratic side do to counter it? There are two major problems here. One is Gray Davis, of course. Nobody pities him, and he probably should resign. But the main problem is that he's a shoo-in to be the first Governor ever recalled in California history. A related problem is the fact that he probably intends to fight to retain his job. This makes him unlikely to participate in a coordinated strategy that has as its object the election of his Lieutenant Governor. There is said to be bad blood between the two anyway. But taking the problem from Cruz Bustamante's point of view, I would try to avoid responding to the right-wing myself. Such attacks, coming from committed ideologues, have less force than when they come from persons who are perceived to be moderate or non-ideological in persuasion. I would have a surrogate respond to the attacks. The most effective surrogate would be - Governor Gray Davis. Davis might not do this in order to shield Bustamante, but he might do it for the purpose of defeating the recall, or because of animus toward the right due to the recall itself. Essentially, Davis could rerun the 2002 Gubernatorial campaign against Simon, and leave Cruz Bustamante to take on Schwarzenegger. The goal of all this would be to to force Arnold Schwarzenegger to take up the gauntlet (heh) against Bustamante personally. If Schwarzenegger starts attacking Bustamante as a liberal, or for any reason, then the strategy will have succeeded. From Bustamante's perspective, a public debate between he and Schwarzenegger would be far preferable to getting caught in the crossfire between Schwarzenegger and his surrogates on the right.
Rereading the forgoing, it all seems a little too tidy to account for the dynamics of the most chaotic political campaign I've ever seen in a lifetime of observing American politics. The possible exception is the 1968 Presidential campaign. So far this one has none of the tragic or sinister overtones of that year, but it makes up for it by being more bizarre and humorous. I may be wrong about my analysis, but I'm sure that the reality will make me laugh, if I don't feel like crying.
The text is here. I got this from LWN.net. But I wanted it in text form for my own use. So I reformatted it from the HTML, and present it here.
.That's a real pity, not least because watching the resultant chaos among candidates for Governor would have genuine entertainment value. But the real benefit would be to the stability of California state government. A change in administration seems likely, no matter what. A change to a Republican administration would be hugely disruptive at a point where state government is facing a continuing fiscal crisis that defied leaders of both parties to completely solve this year. Installing Cruz Bustamante as Governor could be handled in an orderly fashion, would be less disruptive, and would blunt the Republican party's effort to seize power. It's anybody's guess what such a move would mean for the recall election, but that would be part of the entertainment.
But it ain't a gonna happen. Gray Davis is as self serving a politician as has ever held the office of Governor. As long as any uncertainty remains as to his chances of avoiding recall, he will hang in there and fight like hell. That spectacle in itself promises to be entertaining, but my urge to laugh is tempered by the prospect of the whole government, already at a low ebb, getting trashed even further. A successful new Governor, particularly if a Republican, will have a nearly impossible job of lining up support in the Senate and Assembly for passing a new budget next year. If that leads to further chaos, then the prospect of yet another recall campaign, this time mounted by Democrats, can't be discounted. Thus the state would have to endure yet another upheaval, whatever the outcome. I believe if that happens, there might then be bipartisan support to amend the state constitution to abolish or modify the recall provision. But before that happens, we get to watch California government tie itself into knots for the duration. Spare us this outcome Mr. Davis. Resign now!
I think the answer is, he is so damned bloodless. The conniving, the dirty tricks, the mismanagement, all of those things other state politicians have been guilty of in the past. Cynics would say those qualities are what define a politician in any state. But his evident lack of heart, or even an ounce of style are what make him seem callous to voters in the midst of the worst fiscal crisis in state history. If he had any of those qualities, the whole recall mess might seem unfair. Or, maybe not. Let's look at those substantive issues that have most of the state wishing Gray Davis would go away.
I know very little about Schwarzenegger as a politician, and I suspect that many Californians are in the same state (heh) of ignorance regarding a man who seems to have a good shot at replacing Gray Davis in Sacramento. His only foray into state politics up to now was his successful sponsorship of proposition 149 on the November 2002 ballot. That measure earmarked $550 million for after school programs. It was supported three to one by the state's registered Democratic voters in a pre-election poll, but won by 57% in the general election. Conservatives hated it, and they mistrust Schwarzenegger. But he seems to have centrist positions on abortion and gun control, both issues that have sunk Republican candidates for statewide office in the past.
Be that as it may, Mr. Schwarzenegger is an relative unknown quantity. I think that this is an advantage similar to the one enjoyed by Ross Perot in the 1992 Presidential election. Arnold Schwarzenegger, if he is cynical, can take popular positions on every single issue in the campaign, since he has a rather thin public track record. Even if he isn't a complete cynic, he can shade his views to fit the poll numbers without being completely dishonest. Politicians do this all the time, of course, but the tabula rasa of his record makes it easier for Mr. Schwarzenegger to do this effectively. On the other hand, it's unknown how well he can stand up to the sort of attacks that Davis is likely to throw at him in the upcoming campaign. And Davis won't be the only one slinging mud at Schwarzenegger if he emerges as the front runner, as seems likely. He has an opportunity to turn this to his advantage by playing up the dirty tricks that Davis used in the 2002 gubernatorial campaign, particularly against Schwarzenegger's mentor, Richard Riordan.
The uncertainty around Schwarzenegger's candidacy, last minute breaks in the solid Democratic front behind Gray Davis, and a wide open field of candidates including Larry Flint, Gallagher and Gary Coleman should make this a rather amusing political circus to watch. I predict the state will elect a centrist candidate, either Schwarzenegger or one of the Democrats entering the field. But predictions are perilous inside the puzzle box of the upcoming campaign. (What if Riordan decides to run after all, for instance?) I don't shed any tears for Gray Davis. I am concerned about the effect on the state of a sudden transition in the middle of his term to some other candidate, elected with perhaps 30% of the vote, if that, and facing as screwed up a state government as we've had in my memory. But, the die is cast, so bring on the vaudeville!
Patrick seems to be farther to the left than I am. He's got a razor sharp sense of humor, which he shows off in his first posting. I hope this is the first of many more to come. Oh, and you are now eligible for 50% of the take from the Amazon "paybox", Patrick. That currently amounts to approximately $0.00, in round numbers. Don't spend it all in one place! 8)
He recently moved back to the Bay Area, and we decided to meet up at the Empress of India, in Santa Clara. This is a small, and very good Indian restaurant that was a frequent meeting place for the old Octel crew that I worked with. When I showed up at noon, my friend was there, and so was the boss of that old crew. She had introduced most of the shop to this restaurant, and her being there was a coincidence, made a little less amazing by the fact that she frequently has lunch there. She let slip that my first friend had invited a second old friend that I hadn't seen in many years. It turns out that he is now a V.P. of Product Management at a startup. He's a very busy guy, so he was late. My first friend and I started in on our first course. After a while, the second friend showed up. We had very pleasant conversation over the glow of truly excellent chicken curry. My ex-boss was with the party she had come with, so she didn't get involved in the conversation, but her presence made the meal seem all the more nostalgic. I felt a warm glow that was only partly due to the curry.
With some exceptions, I've been hiding out from humanity ever since my ex-wife died in December 1999. In most things, I'm self sufficient. I do well on my own. But reconnecting with this group reminds me strongly of how much I miss human company. Electronic interactions with friends fill some of my need for this sort of thing. But sitting in an old familiar place, sharing pleasures like a good meal and watching a friend's face as he tells a joke or lets you know about a fear isn't something that translates well over email. I enjoyed this lunch an awful lot.
Short summary: how long does it take to install Xchat when your vendor has loaded a base Debian on your new laptop, and you don't know apt very well? The author has also posted amusing replies in the midst of a very long thread on debian-devel that starts here.
This continues a trend set during the interview process, in which it sometimes took several days to reach the next step in the process. I've been out of work for a while, so I'm anxious to get back on the job. But that's only half the reason I've been so jumpy about the delays. The other reason is my Silicon Valley startup reflexes. I'm certain I'm going to have to adjust these reflexes to get used to my new working life. I actually had a choice of whether to go on-board as a contractor or as a permanent employee. I chose to go permanent for several reasons. First, the company involved has a reputation of treating employees extremely well. Also, I admire what the company is doing in my industry. But most important are the resources this company can bring to bear on a problem. I am practically salivating to get my hands on those resources!
All of this makes me intellectually willing to put up with the inevitable slow pace certain aspects of doing business in a large company entail. It's not the first time I've worked in a large business environment, though never at this scale. Emotionally however, I have those startup reflexes that condition my expectations. The new job will be a challenge, not only technically, but psychologically as well. I'm looking forward to both.
Possible replacements include Condoleezza Rice and Paul D. Wolfowitz, according to the article. It is normal for a second-term President to reshuffle his cabinet to better reflect his policy goals. There's no pressure to go before the electorate again, and thus less need to pander to constituencies that aren't in sync with the Presidential philosophy. But for someone uneasy with decision making in the current Administration, this glimpse of the shape of Bush's second term is unsettling, to say the least.
Update, 8/5/2003: The White house and Colin Powell have categorically denied the story. According to Powell:
"The story has no substance. And the so-called conversation that took place between my deputy, Mr. Armitage, and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice did not take place."I suppose it's in the Dem's interests to heighten concern about a Bush second term. Or, Colin could be lying. I'd like to think he wouldn't do that, though.
* Link may require you to give up some information. Just tell them you are 92 years old, and of the opposite gender. 8)
But ljl has posted as neat an analogy for the fiasco as I've heard over on Iconoclast Blast. While her summary is humorous, and true, as far as it goes, I think most folks are missing the meat of the matter: derivative works. This is the issue upon which AT&T's Unix Systems Laboratory (USL) lawsuit against UC Berkeley and BSDI turned. The original Unix license provided that "derivative works" were covered under the original license, and could not be revealed to third parties. In that lawsuit, it was shown that Berkeley Unix was comprised of mostly new code, and that Bell Labs had copied a lot of this code back into System V, removing the university's copyright notice as they did so. The case was never adjudicated, but was settled by Novell soon after it acquired USL from AT&T.
Many point to that earlier lawsuit to bash SCO for filing against IBM. But the USL vs BSDI case was never finished, as noted above. And IBM had a different Unix License than UC Berkeley did. It now appears that there was a side agreement between AT&T and IBM that acknowledged IBM's rights in Unix software that it developed. But the situation is complicated. Much of the code SCO is apparently complaining about (they aren't actually saying which code it was, exactly) was developed by Sequent, which was bought by IBM. Sequent had its own Unix license, the terms of which will bear on this lawsuit. The waters are muddy enough that it is possible that SCO could prevail in its lawsuit against IBM. IANL, and even if I were, I wouldn't be able to give a good assessment of the various side's chances without access to a lot of information, most of which won't be available until discovery and pre-trial motions are complete.
Nonetheless, ljl's analogy of SCO being the bad sport who wants to take the ball away, even though he doesn't own it seems apt to me. SCO's attempt to extort license fees out of Linux users seems to have very little basis in law, even if SCO prevails against IBM. (IANAL, already!) And IBM must feel pretty good about its case if it is willing to risk AIX, as it appears to be. But if I were Linus Torvalds, I might want to start looking into just starting projects to replace NUMA and RCU, two of the three technologies contributed to the Linux kernel by IBM. Actually completing such projects would be very time consuming. But why not tool up, just in case?
Like the last time around, SAGE, the Systems Administrator's Guild came through in a big way. My new employer found me on the SAGE job board, a benefit available only to members. The dues I pay to SAGE and Usenix each year are undoubtably the best professional investment I've ever made.