The exit of Garamendi from the campaign leaves only one moderate candidate with name recognition in the field: Arnold Schwarzenegger. And Buzzflash, a left-wing opinion web site, accuses the Bush Administration of engineering the recall campaign from the start. While I think that conclusion is a little far-fetched, the linked page does present some interesting evidence that the Administration has a hand in it informally. At any rate, Bush's support may well mean that Schwartzenegger's campaign will have access to sharp political operatives on loan from the national Republican party. If I were one of those operatives, here is what I would try to do.
I'd try to enforce Republican party discipline to shut up the right wing with respect to Schwarzenegger candidacy. I'd refocus their ire on Cruz Bustamante, who is vulnerable to liberal baiting. Bustamante may then feel it necessary to fire back at the right (indeed it must be tempting anyway) and that will distract negative attention from Schwarzenegger. In other words, I'd try to convert a full-court press of the left and the right attacking the front runner into a free-for-all between the two political extremes aimed at each other leaving the center placid and clear for Arnold Schwarzenegger. He'll run against Gray Davis, a very soft target. The one internal problem with this is the fact that California Republicans have been famously resistant to control, or even compromise. The fact that there are still two prominent right-wing Republicans in the race is indicative of this.
If the forgoing outline of Republican strategy has any basis in reality, what should the Democratic side do to counter it? There are two major problems here. One is Gray Davis, of course. Nobody pities him, and he probably should resign. But the main problem is that he's a shoo-in to be the first Governor ever recalled in California history. A related problem is the fact that he probably intends to fight to retain his job. This makes him unlikely to participate in a coordinated strategy that has as its object the election of his Lieutenant Governor. There is said to be bad blood between the two anyway. But taking the problem from Cruz Bustamante's point of view, I would try to avoid responding to the right-wing myself. Such attacks, coming from committed ideologues, have less force than when they come from persons who are perceived to be moderate or non-ideological in persuasion. I would have a surrogate respond to the attacks. The most effective surrogate would be - Governor Gray Davis. Davis might not do this in order to shield Bustamante, but he might do it for the purpose of defeating the recall, or because of animus toward the right due to the recall itself. Essentially, Davis could rerun the 2002 Gubernatorial campaign against Simon, and leave Cruz Bustamante to take on Schwarzenegger. The goal of all this would be to to force Arnold Schwarzenegger to take up the gauntlet (heh) against Bustamante personally. If Schwarzenegger starts attacking Bustamante as a liberal, or for any reason, then the strategy will have succeeded. From Bustamante's perspective, a public debate between he and Schwarzenegger would be far preferable to getting caught in the crossfire between Schwarzenegger and his surrogates on the right.
Rereading the forgoing, it all seems a little too tidy to account for the dynamics of the most chaotic political campaign I've ever seen in a lifetime of observing American politics. The possible exception is the 1968 Presidential campaign. So far this one has none of the tragic or sinister overtones of that year, but it makes up for it by being more bizarre and humorous. I may be wrong about my analysis, but I'm sure that the reality will make me laugh, if I don't feel like crying.
Posted by hbo at August 9, 2003 07:33 PM