I know very little about Schwarzenegger as a politician, and I suspect that many Californians are in the same state (heh) of ignorance regarding a man who seems to have a good shot at replacing Gray Davis in Sacramento. His only foray into state politics up to now was his successful sponsorship of proposition 149 on the November 2002 ballot. That measure earmarked $550 million for after school programs. It was supported three to one by the state's registered Democratic voters in a pre-election poll, but won by 57% in the general election. Conservatives hated it, and they mistrust Schwarzenegger. But he seems to have centrist positions on abortion and gun control, both issues that have sunk Republican candidates for statewide office in the past.
Be that as it may, Mr. Schwarzenegger is an relative unknown quantity. I think that this is an advantage similar to the one enjoyed by Ross Perot in the 1992 Presidential election. Arnold Schwarzenegger, if he is cynical, can take popular positions on every single issue in the campaign, since he has a rather thin public track record. Even if he isn't a complete cynic, he can shade his views to fit the poll numbers without being completely dishonest. Politicians do this all the time, of course, but the tabula rasa of his record makes it easier for Mr. Schwarzenegger to do this effectively. On the other hand, it's unknown how well he can stand up to the sort of attacks that Davis is likely to throw at him in the upcoming campaign. And Davis won't be the only one slinging mud at Schwarzenegger if he emerges as the front runner, as seems likely. He has an opportunity to turn this to his advantage by playing up the dirty tricks that Davis used in the 2002 gubernatorial campaign, particularly against Schwarzenegger's mentor, Richard Riordan.
The uncertainty around Schwarzenegger's candidacy, last minute breaks in the solid Democratic front behind Gray Davis, and a wide open field of candidates including
Larry Flint, Gallagher and Gary Coleman should make this a rather amusing political circus to watch. I predict the state will elect a centrist candidate, either Schwarzenegger
or one of the Democrats entering the field. But predictions are perilous inside the puzzle box of the upcoming campaign. (What if Riordan decides to run after all, for instance?)
I don't shed any tears for Gray Davis. I am concerned about the effect on the state of a sudden transition in the middle of his term to some other candidate, elected with perhaps
30% of the vote, if that, and facing as screwed up a state government as we've had in my memory. But, the die is cast, so bring on the vaudeville!
Posted by hbo at August 7, 2003 09:02 PM